The US Election & US-China Relations: At a Crossroads?

The two great powers’ relations could not be more important for the rest of the world.

This Diplosphere panel will explore:

• What we can expect for US-China relations depending on the outcome of the US presidential election,
• And what this implies for New Zealand and our Asia Pacific region in terms of diplomacy, security and trade.

Chair: Maty Nikkhou-O'Brien, Founding Director, Diplosphere

Speakers:

• Her Excellency Ms Wu Xi, Ambassador of the People's Republic of China (TBC)
• Hon Tim Groser, former NZ Ambassador to the US, Minister of Trade, Minister of Climate Change and Deputy Foreign Minister (John Key’s Govt 2008-15)
• Dr Alan Bollard, Chair for Pacific Region Business at Victoria University, former Executive Director of the APEC Secretariat, Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Secretary of Treasury
• Anna Fifield, former Beijing Bureau Chief for The Washington Post, Bureau Chief in Tokyo
• Dr Xiaoming Huang, Professor of International Relations, Victoria University of Wellington

Article published by Newsroom

Summary

• Sustaining and advancing stable relations is in everyone’s interests. Cooperation, dialogue and consensus-building is the way forward for US-China relations.
• The increasing tension between the two great powers desperately needs stabilization. But this will require the Biden administration to meet China halfway, abandoning its recent ‘Cold War’ mentality and zero-sum approach.
• The growing wariness of China within the US is not simply a ‘Trumpian’ phenomena, but a truly enduring bi-partisan view within the government that is likely here to stay.
• Biden’s China policy is likely to be more restrained and coherent than the Trump administrations. But expect no major policy innovations, a change in style, not substance.
• Expect a return to multilateralism and a deepening of engagement with key partners. Strengthening their network of alliances will enable them to better project a ‘united front’.
• Biden’s foreign policy is likely to be more ‘principled.’ Likely putting more pressure on China over its human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. An issue that will prove a bone of contention between the two states, as China will view that as a breach of its sovereignty and core interests.
• There is hope for cooperation on shared issues such as; climate change, COVID-19, cybersecurity and proliferation. Furthermore, decoupling is all but impossible and will likely cease.
• The primary barrier to Biden’s presidency is the volatile partisan divide. A Republican majority Senate and Supreme Court may result in a deadlock restraining Biden’s options/effectiveness.
• China is changing rapidly and the approach Xi Jinping himself takes towards the US will be a key factor to watch in the coming years.